How I increased my spread by not challenging a phony bingo...
I had an interesting game this weekend where it appears it was best for me to not challenge off a phony bingo and not because it setup a good comeback play. Late in the game, my opponent played UNSHApE* for 70. I didn't know UNSHAPED or UNSHAPEN but reasoned it was a phony. It just seemed like one of those words that would only exist in some adjective form. I would have challenged, but I had deduced that CINQVY were the six tiles left in the bag. I had a 38 point GUTTED play at 12A, giving me an easy out in two if his play stayed on the board. I decided to take this route as I wanted nothing to do with the tiles in the bag. It turns out my intuition was correct and leaving the bingo on leads to a higher spread (assuming I played GUTTED).

If the play stays, I get down 12A GUTTED followed by 4A IVY. I then go out with D14 (H)I for a 475-351 (+124) win. If I challenge off his play and play GUTTED, he responds with 4C SHEs followed by 9A QI and then A12 (G)UAN or (G)AUN for a 454-338 (+116) win.

It's possible that it's best to challenge off his play and then keep tiles in the bag with something like 12D TEG (which leaves some good scoring plays if I draw the Q). However, it's hard to assess plays that leave tiles in the bag, and unfortunately, Quackle doesn't let you specify an opponents rack for simming purposes. It also seems like this is leaving too much to chance as it'd be easy to draw into a bad rack. I'd appreciate hearing any comments or suggestions people may have.

Adam C                   CINQVY    332 
Dave                     GUTTEDI   403

Dave: Turn 12

   A B C D E F G H I J K L M N O  
   ------------------------------   
 1|B O A '       =       '   B I|
 2|A E R A T I N G   "   K A E  | 
 3|    M A I T ' R ' A C E -    | 
 4|'     -       O     E X     '| 
 5|        -   W U D   L        |
 6|  "       Y O N   W O     "  |
 7|    '       ' D ' H M   '    |
 8|=     '     P E P O   '     =|
 9|    '       ' R ' A D   '    |
10|  S e L L E R S   " I     J  |
11|    F O I N         E     I F|
12|'     -       '     T I N G E|
13|    -       ' L O V E   -   A|
14|U N S H A p E     " R     - Z|
15|=     '     R O U T S '     E|
   ------------------------------