Dave T ([info]porosus) wrote,
@ 2008-05-26 20:31:00
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A tale of two tournaments
I was playing well and in great shape after two days at the Arden Cup, and then the wheels came off. 

With three rounds to go I had to win one game to clinch division C.  I lost all 3 through a mix of bad luck and bad play and finished third.  I attribute part of the problem to a bout of insomnia the night before.  After wkaing up to a thunderstorm at 3 am, I slept intermittently until finally getting up at 6.  Still there's absolutely no excuse for missing DILATO(R)S.  (Yeah it was that bad a day)  For the first 16 games the average scores from my games were 424-348.  For the last 4: 360-413. 

I promised Brett I'd post the games from my collapse.  I feel like I was just unlucky in the first one, but the last two highlight my weaknesses playing on closed boards, where I'm easily frustrated and make bad choices.  So here they are:

Round 18 - Mary K.
Round 19 - Charles R.
Round 20 - Charles R.

And to show that I'm actually capable of playing good scrabble, here's a fun game from the happier part of the tournament:

Round 7 - Adrian M.

The tournament is rated in halves so it's hard to say for sure, but it looks like my rating my break 1400.  It's likely I won't play another tourney before next year's Arden Cup (I really need to finish my PhD in the next year).  Since I'll still be division C nothing's really changed.

My bingos:
AUDITOr
sNARL(I)ER
r(E)HEATED
DALtONS
BRAWLeR
NEUrINE
RETEST(E)D
(E)MOTiONS
GAVO(T)TES
(C)REEPIeR
PIETIES
AViDINS
ABETTED
cYANITE
oVERTAX
TAN(K)ARDS
M(I)NTIEST
rE(S)CORES
LISTENS
(S)TRANgEr
HOTELME(N)
SARODES
PEAhENS
MAESTRI
LANCETS
PROJETS
ANSATED
IRATEST
SNUGGER
TONSURE(D)
DIMNESS
OVERr(I)PE
RUCTION
SALTIRE
VInTAGE



And theirs:
PREVENTS
SENORITA
DAMPEST
INSTATE
A(T)RESIAs
INSIDEs
ANODIz(E)S
EXURbIA
RE(T)REATS
SENARII
DEXTRIn(E)
RUINAT(E)s
FEEBLER
UNITIEs
WR(A)pPING
SEALING
SEN(O)RItA
E(V)ACuEES
At(E)LIERS
ExPLAI(N)S
(T)eNDRILS
MEOUING
(G)RADUATe
RE(C)LINES
TREAD(I)NG
MOIsTLY
TOWAGES
IS(O)lATES

(5 comments) - (Post a new comment)


[info]aibretty
2008-05-27 06:21 pm UTC (link)
I've just gone through game 1 so far and it doesn't look like you played TOO bad. You probably should have seen MISSEND, but other than that there's nothing terribly questionable until your ALEPH play.

I don't see a star play, but barring a really awesome draw (or a really dumb move on her part [i.e., exactly what happened]), you're going to be stuck making some pretty low scoring plays for the next few turns. I don't know.

It's too bad after GUT there isn't any blocking plays for the M hook, cause you have to think she has it at that point, maybe even in combo with a blank. Unfortunately, exchanging bingoes didn't work out. Tough luck.

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[info]porosus
2008-05-27 06:54 pm UTC (link)
Or she had a bingo from the G there. With both blanks unseen, I had to exchange. I hated ALEPH too. I should sim the position. Most of Quackle's suggestions slot a vowel in the TWS lane which seems like suicide at this point. POILU has a decent leave. But it's only 10 points and likely gives her points playing to the TWS.

Even had I seen MISSEND, I wouldn't have been sure enough to play it, not when I have a guaranteed 87 points.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

[info]porosus
2008-05-28 12:37 am UTC (link)
I just ran ~8000 iterations of a 4 ply sim of the top 50 suggestions. The top 5 plays are:
D1 POILU
2M PIU
2C OUPHE
2c OUPH
D4 LOUPE

They're only separated by about 1.5% difference in win percentage, and ALEPH is 9th on the list and about 3 percentage points behind POILU. I'm not really crazy about any of the plays here. I think I may dip into my simulated games to find positions where you're stuck with a rack like this where exchanging isn't the right play but nothing scores well.

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[info]hector31
2008-06-25 08:55 am UTC (link)
For the most part it looks like Dave didn't have much to play with in the final three games. That would get to anyone. That said, one play I disagreed with was WAIT in the Mary K. game, Turn 4. Obviously AOUU is a nightmare leave, and this board doesn't have a lot of dumpability to it - on different boards it might be easier to start shaping your rack going forward, but it's going to take a while to get out of this jail (granted you hit the perfect storm; no improvement, and she created a scoring area you were powerless to use). If WAIT scored more perhaps I'd take it even with the feeling that next turn probably is a pre-destined exchange, but I don't think 20 is enough here, not for my taste anyway.

At the end of the day this might be simply a stylistic difference, and I respect that your first instinct was to play through the crap rather than mail in the turn, but I think I'm reaching for the bag here.

Thanks for the posts, I respect players who aren't afraid to show games like this.

(Reply to this) (Parent)

[info]aibretty
2008-05-27 08:22 pm UTC (link)
Game 2 was just painful. Once you got those orphans, you just lost your mind. Believe me I understand, but you have to think that you don't need a bingo to win this game, and with both blanks unseen, you really should get some turnover and score as much as you can. Also, on this board ENRST is not a great leave because your lines have to end in E or play through a G in the middle of the word. Even if you draw a bingo, chances are it won't play with that kind of leave.

I sort of like CENTRE/ERAS (not knowing CENTRUM) for 20 leaving S when you play C(E)E for 11. I also would consider RUMENS (not knowing CERUMENS) for 24 leaving CERT. There's enough goodies left that you can outgun him in the endgame. Even if he bingoes, you stand an OK chance of getting back in it with plays on line 14 and at J10.

These are of course considering not knowing the words that are the star plays.

It's too bad ERUCTION* isn't good cause you could just fish for TRISTE(ZA). Just kidding.

Anybody else have a better play? I'm obviously just talking out loud here.

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